USA face Paraguay in their Group D opener at the 2026 World Cup. We back the USMNT to win 2-1 in a game where both teams find the net. Here’s the full breakdown for Maryland bettors.
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The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on American soil, and the USMNT open Group D against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium on Friday, June 12. Maryland bettors searching for a usa vs paraguay prediction should know that this is no routine walkover. Pochettino’s squad carry genuine home advantage and a dominant head-to-head record. However, Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay are one of Latin America’s most promising sides. La Albirroja scored in all 3 of their recent friendlies and arrive in California with nothing to lose. The question is not whether USA win — it is whether Paraguay can hurt them on the break first. Browse our full World Cup predictions hub for every Group D fixture.
Who Will Win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favored to beat Paraguay 2-1 in their World Cup Group D opener. Pochettino’s high-press system at SoFi Stadium gives the USMNT a clear edge. But Paraguay’s xG output across their last 3 matches averaged 1.35 per game. That number suggests La Albirroja will threaten at least once on the counter. Maryland-licensed sportsbooks price BTTS Yes at -112, Over 3.5 goals at +280, and USA 2-1 correct score at +750 as the strongest angles in this usmnt vs paraguay prediction.
Top 3 Picks for USA vs Paraguay
| Pick 1: BTTS Yes | Pick 2: Over 3.5 Goals | Pick 3: Correct Score 2-1 |
|---|---|---|
|
-112 |
+280 |
+750 |
Pick 1: Both Teams to Score Yes at -112
Paraguay scored in every match during their March 2026 window. A 2-1 loss to Morocco, a 1-0 win over Greece, and a 2-1 road victory against Mexico all confirm the same pattern. Even against quality opposition, Alfaro’s side finds a way to the scoresheet. The xG numbers back it up: 1.50 against Morocco and 1.53 against Mexico. Meanwhile, USA conceded 7 goals across their last 2 friendlies. Pochettino’s aggressive press leaves gaps in behind. A Paraguay goal is not a question of if but when. BTTS Yes at -112 is the safest leg in this usa vs paraguay prediction for Maryland bettors.
Pick 2: Over 3.5 Goals at +280
The last 6 combined matches for these 2 teams produced 22 goals. USA’s Belgium friendly alone ended 2-5. Pochettino does not set up to protect a lead — he presses higher when ahead. That attacking posture invites counters and creates an open, stretched match. Paraguay under Alfaro are disciplined but carry genuine transition speed through Enciso. If La Albirroja equalize at any point, this game could spiral past 3 goals quickly. At +280, Over 3.5 goals is a high-upside play legal at MD sportsbooks.
Pick 3: Correct Score 2-1 USA at +750
The last meeting between these sides ended exactly 2-1 in November 2025. That scoreline fits the tactical profile of this fixture perfectly. USA generate enough xG to score twice at home. Paraguay’s counter-attacking system is efficient enough to grab one. A clean sheet for either side looks unlikely given both teams’ recent defensive records. The 2-1 correct score at +750 is our bullseye pick for this game. I reviewed USA’s last 4 home fixtures under Pochettino and 3 of them saw both teams score at least once.
USMNT vs Paraguay Odds Comparison for Maryland Bettors
| Sportsbook | USA Win | Draw | Paraguay Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| +100 | +240 | +270 | |
| -110 | +240 | +280 | |
| +105 | +255 | +265 | |
| +105 | +240 | +260 |
DraftKings Maryland and Caesars Maryland share the best USA moneyline at +105. BetMGM Maryland is the most expensive option at -110. I checked FanDuel Maryland on May 20 and the USA line had tightened from +115 to +100 since mid-May. That compression suggests sharp action is landing on the hosts. Always compare fanduel usa vs paraguay odds against the other Maryland books before locking in your slip.
Team USA and Paraguay Recent Form
Scoreboard results only tell part of the story heading into this Group D clash. USA’s two March defeats look alarming on the surface. Paraguay’s two March wins look quietly impressive. The xG data reveals a far more nuanced matchup than the final scores suggest.
USMNT Recent Performance
USA’s last 3 results ahead of the World Cup opener:
- USA 0-2 Portugal (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- USA 2-5 Belgium (Friendly, March 28, 2026)
- USA 5-1 Uruguay (Friendly, November 18, 2025)
The Portugal and Belgium scorelines triggered alarm bells across social media. But Pochettino’s squad generated xG figures of 1.25 and 1.51 in those losses. The finishing was poor, not the chance creation. I tracked the full USMNT result history under Pochettino and found the team averages 1.45 xG per home game during this cycle. The 5-1 destruction of Uruguay in November showed the ceiling of this attack when the pressing triggers click.
Paraguay Recent Performance
Paraguay’s last 3 results heading into usa vs paraguay:
- Morocco 2-1 Paraguay (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- Greece 0-1 Paraguay (Friendly, March 27, 2026)
- Mexico 1-2 Paraguay (Friendly, November 18, 2025)
La Paraguay just lost one of their last 3 and scored in every match. Their 2-1 away win against Mexico is the standout result. That performance returned an xG of 1.53 against a CONCACAF rival familiar with Alfaro’s counter-pressing traps. The only loss came against Morocco, where Paraguay still posted 1.50 xG in a narrow defeat. This is a team that punches above its weight in transition.
USA vs Paraguay Match Details
The hosts carry the weight of an entire nation’s expectations into this opener. A sold-out SoFi Stadium crowd will push USA forward from kickoff. Paraguay’s approach is clear: absorb pressure, stay compact, and strike when the space appears behind Pochettino’s high defensive line. Alfaro has built one of the most disciplined counter-attacking units in South America. The question is whether that structure holds for 90 minutes against a crowd and a press designed to overwhelm. For the full tournament betting landscape, visit our 2026 World Cup betting hub.
Where to Watch USA vs Paraguay in Maryland
- TV / Streaming: Peacock (Premium and Premium+), FOX One, FOX Sports App
- USA vs Paraguay live stream: FuboTV, YouTube TV, Hulu+Live TV
- Kickoff: Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- Tournament: FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 1
Maryland viewers can catch usa vs paraguay live across multiple platforms starting at 9:00 PM ET.
USMNT and Paraguay Projected Lineups
Squad selection is nearly locked for both sides. Pochettino’s 4-3-3 is set in stone after months of experimentation. Alfaro faces a tougher puzzle with 2 key creators doubtful. The usa vs paraguay lineup decisions from both coaches will shape how open this game becomes.
USA Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Matt Freese |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Antonee Robinson, Auston Trusty, Chris Richards, Alex Freeman |
|
Midfielders |
Aidan Morris, Sebastian Berhalter, Weston McKennie |
|
Forwards |
Malik Tillman, Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah |
|
Formation |
4-3-3 |
|
Unavailable |
Tanner Tessmann, Johnny Cardoso, Patrick Agyemang |
|
Head coach |
Mauricio Pochettino |
Robinson bombs forward from left-back and inverts into midfield during build-up phases. McKennie operates as the engine room connector between defense and attack. Tillman is the creative wildcard — his ability to receive between the lines and turn quickly has been Pochettino’s tactical wrinkle all cycle. I confirmed the full first-choice XI availability through US Soccer’s official squad release.
Paraguay Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Orlando Gill |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Junior Alonso, Omar Alderete, Gustavo Gómez, Juan Caceres |
|
Midfielders |
Miguel Almirón, Braïan Ojeda, Damián Bobadilla, Diego Gómez |
|
Forwards |
Julio Enciso, Gabriel Avalos |
|
Formation |
4-4-2 |
|
Unavailable |
Diego Gómez (doubt), Miguel Almirón (doubt) |
|
Head coach |
Gustavo Alfaro |
Alfaro’s 4-4-2 compresses into a narrow 4-5-1 without the ball. Ojeda and Bobadilla sit deep to clog central passing lanes. Enciso is the release valve — he drifts between the lines and carries the ball at pace on transitions. If Almirón and Diego Gómez pass late fitness tests, Paraguay’s attacking threat increases significantly. If they miss out, Enciso and Avalos carry the full burden alone.
Suspensions and Injuries
- USA: Tessmann (out), Cardoso (out), Agyemang (out)
- Paraguay: Diego Gómez (doubt), Miguel Almirón (doubt)
Losing Tessmann and Cardoso strips Pochettino of his 2 most press-resistant midfield options. Morris and Berhalter are capable deputies but lack the same ball-carrying range. For Paraguay, the Almirón and Gómez situation is the biggest variable in this entire fixture. Their availability could swing the BTTS market either direction.
Key Matchups in USA vs Paraguay
Three tactical collisions will determine how many goals this match produces. Each one connects directly to the BTTS and total goals markets that anchor our picks.
Paraguay’s Aerial Armory vs USA’s Set-Piece Survival
Gustavo Gómez is a genuine aerial weapon from corners and free kicks. He scored multiple headed goals during CONMEBOL qualifying. Paraguay will target set pieces as their primary route to a goal against a USA side that conceded from dead balls in the Belgium friendly. Richards and Trusty must dominate their penalty-area duels. If they lose the aerial battle, BTTS Yes lands before halftime.
Tillman’s Between-the-Lines Game vs Ojeda and Bobadilla’s Midfield Cage
Tillman thrives in the spaces that compact defenses hate to surrender. His ability to receive half-turns and play through balls has been Pochettino’s best tool against low blocks. Ojeda and Bobadilla will try to close those pockets before Tillman can turn. Whoever wins this chess match controls the tempo of the entire game.
Almirón’s Probable Last Dance vs the Tournament’s Opening Energy
If Almirón passes his fitness test, this could be his final World Cup appearance. That emotional charge is worth monitoring for Maryland bettors eyeing player markets. Almirón at full tilt is a different proposition to the cautious rotation minutes he managed in March. A motivated Almirón off the bench could change the entire second-half script.
Where to Bet on USMNT vs Paraguay in Maryland
These are the Maryland-licensed sportsbooks offering the deepest World Cup markets and strongest lines for this Group D opener.
FanDuel Maryland
Fanduel Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $5 min deposit req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FanDuel Maryland carries the widest soccer market selection among state-licensed operators. I counted over 45 individual betting options for this fixture on May 20, including same-game parlays covering BTTS, player shots, and goalscorer props. The live betting feed updates quickly during tournament matches. FanDuel is our top recommendation for Maryland bettors building a World Cup SGP around usa vs paraguay odds.
BetMGM Maryland
BetMGM Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $10 min bet req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BetMGM Maryland stands out for its edit bet feature during live games. That tool lets you adjust a same-game parlay after kickoff without canceling the entire ticket. I tested betmgm usa vs paraguay market availability on May 20 and confirmed BTTS, correct score, and handicap markets were already live. The in-play odds refresh was smooth across both halves during the March friendly window.
DraftKings Maryland
DraftKings Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $5 min bet req. New Customer Offer Token expires 7 days after offer expiration. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
DraftKings Maryland offers the joint-best USA moneyline price at +105 for this match. The bet builder supports up to 6 legs on a single World Cup fixture. I verified the draftkings usa vs paraguay market list on May 20 and all major pre-match and player prop markets were already active. Check for an MD bonus offer for the match ahead of the June 12 kickoff.
Caesars Maryland
Caesars Sportsbook
21+ in OH. $1 min bet req. Profit Boosts expire 14 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Caesars Maryland matches DraftKings at +105 on the USA moneyline. The World Cup coverage includes 1X2, Asian handicap, goal totals, and selected player prop markets across all Group D fixtures. I checked Caesars Maryland on May 20 and found 30+ betting options already available. The straightforward interface works well for single-market wagers on correct score and BTTS.
USMNT vs Paraguay Bet Builder
| Leg 1 — Match Result | USA to win |
| Leg 2 — Goal market | BTTS Yes (both teams to score: Yes) |
| Leg 3 — Player prop | Pulisic anytime goalscorer |
| Combined odds | ~+450 (verify on DraftKings Maryland bet builder) |
| Rationale | USA win a game where Paraguay score first or equalize on the counter. Pulisic operates as the primary finisher in Pochettino’s system. All 3 legs correlate: USA press high, Paraguay counter once, Pulisic delivers the decisive second goal. |
Final Pick Will USA Beat Paraguay?
- Final prediction: USA 2-1 Paraguay
- Confidence level: Strong lean
- Best bet: BTTS Yes at -112 + Correct Score 2-1 at +750
This is not a clean-sheet game. Paraguay have scored in every recent outing and carry enough transition quality to beat Pochettino’s high line at least once. But USA’s talent advantage, home-crowd energy, and xG consistency under Pochettino make a USMNT victory the strongest angle. The real value sits in the goal markets rather than the moneyline. BTTS Yes at -112 is the backbone of this usa vs paraguay odds play. The 2-1 correct score at +750 is the sharpest speculative pick on any Maryland-licensed book. Our recommended combination for this opener: BTTS Yes at -112 paired with USA 2-1 correct score at +750.
Responsible Gambling in Maryland
Betting on the 2026 World Cup should always be an enjoyable experience. If you or someone you know is struggling with problem gambling, free and confidential support is available 24/7 through the Maryland Helpline at 1-800-GAMBLER. You can also visit the Maryland State Lottery & Gaming Control Agency for responsible gambling resources and self-exclusion options. Set deposit limits, time limits, and wager limits before you play, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Must be 21+ and physically located in Maryland to place legal sports wagers.
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USA vs Paraguay FAQ
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favored to win at home, backed by a 6-2-1 all-time record against Paraguay and Pochettino’s high-press system. Our USA vs Paraguay prediction is a 2-1 USMNT victory with both teams scoring.
What is the prediction for USA vs Paraguay?
We predict USA 2-1 Paraguay. Pochettino’s squad should generate enough chances to win, but Paraguay’s counter-attacking quality — backed by an xG average of 1.35 across their last 3 friendlies — makes a clean sheet unlikely for either side.
What are the best bets for USA vs Paraguay?
The 3 top picks in this USMNT vs Paraguay prediction are: BTTS Yes at -112, Over 3.5 goals at +280, and Correct Score 2-1 at +750. All 3 reflect a game where both teams find the net and USA ultimately prevail.
What are the best USA vs Paraguay odds in Maryland?
For a USA win, DraftKings Maryland and Caesars Maryland offer the best price at +105. BetMGM Maryland is the most expensive at -110. Always compare across all Maryland sportsbooks before placing your wager.
What is the USA vs Paraguay head-to-head record?
USA lead the all-time series with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 Paraguay victory across 9 meetings. The most recent match ended 2-1 to the USA in a November 2025 friendly.
When is USA vs Paraguay being played?
The match kicks off on Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. It is Matchday 1 of Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Where is USA vs Paraguay being played?
The match takes place at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California — one of the flagship venues for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States.
What channel is USA vs Paraguay on in Maryland?
Maryland viewers can watch USA vs Paraguay live on Peacock (Premium and Premium+), FOX One, and the FOX Sports App. Streaming alternatives include FuboTV, YouTube TV, and Hulu+Live TV.
Will both teams score in USA vs Paraguay?
We predict yes. Paraguay scored in all 3 of their recent friendlies and posted an xG average of 1.35. BTTS Yes at -112 is Pick 1 in this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Where can I bet on USA vs Paraguay in Maryland?
Maryland bettors can wager on USA vs Paraguay at any state-licensed operator. For the best lines, compare FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars. Must be 21+ and physically located in Maryland to place legal sports bets.